Lesson 4 of 9 · about 18 minutes
Projects planned, deals signed and the cost record
You'll be able to
- List the main North American SMR projects and their status as of October 2026
- Sort a nuclear deal by firmness, from construction under way to memorandum
- Compute cost per kilowatt from Darlington's published numbers and explain why later units should cost less
- State the supporters' and critics' strongest arguments and where the evidence points
After years of announcements, 2026 was the year concrete started showing up. Ontario lifted a reactor basemat into its shaft in April. TerraPower started nuclear construction in Wyoming the same month. The NRC issued TVA a permit in September. And still, as of October 2026, no SMR anywhere in North America was sending power to a grid. This lesson lists the projects, sorts the deals and looks at the first real cost numbers.
The project list
| Project | Design | Owner or buyer | Status, October 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Darlington New Nuclear, Ontario | 4 BWRX-300, about 1,200 MWe total | Ontario Power Generation | Under construction since 2025. Basemat lifted in April 2026; OPG's goal is grid connection of the first unit by the end of 2030. |
| Clinch River, Tennessee | BWRX-300 | TVA | NRC construction permit, September 2026. DOE selected TVA for up to $400 million in cost-shared funding in December 2025. No construction date; TVA negotiating cost-sharing partners. |
| Kemmerer Unit 1, Wyoming | Natrium, 345 MWe | TerraPower subsidiary, with PacifiCorp's retiring coal site nearby | Construction began April 23, 2026; completion expected 2030. |
| Long Mott, Seadrift, Texas | 4 Xe-100, 320 MWe | Dow (Long Mott Energy) | NRC permit review; final safety evaluation targeted November 2026. |
| Hermes 2, Oak Ridge, Tennessee | Kairos, aimed at 50 MWe | Kairos, with Google and TVA tied to output | Groundbreaking April 2026; operations expected by 2030. |
| Palisades SMR-300s, Michigan | 2 Holtec SMR-300, about 340 MWe each | Holtec | Partial construction permit application accepted early 2026; NRC final reviews expected March 2027. |
| Cascade, near Richland, Washington | Xe-100, initial 320 MWe, up to 960 | Energy Northwest, Amazon-backed | Construction permit application expected first half of 2027, per X-energy in June 2026. |
| Aurora-INL, Idaho | Oklo, up to 75 MWe | Oklo | Under construction under DOE authorization; no operating date. |
| Army Janus program | Microreactors from five vendors | U.S. Army, up to $2.2 billion through fiscal 2031 | Vendors and bases named August 26, 2026; first service targeted September 2028. |
| Carbon Free Power Project, INL | 6 NuScale modules, 462 MWe | Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems | Cancelled November 2023 over cost. |
Data center and corporate deals, sorted by firmness
The earlier SMR lesson walked through Meta's "up to 6.6 GW" headline. The same method works for any deal: put each piece in one of these bins.
- Construction under way, with a regulator's permit. Darlington; Kemmerer.
- Permit in hand or near, money committed, construction not started. Clinch River; Long Mott.
- Signed purchase agreement for reactors not yet permitted. Google's October 2024 agreement to buy up to 500 MW from Kairos reactors through 2035.
- Equity investment plus a planned project. Amazon's stake in X-energy and the Cascade plan.
- Framework agreements and rights to future units. TerraPower and Meta's January 9, 2026 agreement covering eight Natrium plants, two funded and energy rights to six more; Meta's planned Oklo campus in Ohio.
- Stated plans and memorandums. Aalo's plan for Aalo-X to power a co-located data center in 2027; many announced partnerships with no money or permit attached.
Most of the gigawatts in the headlines live in bins 4 through 6. They may still get built, but they depend on licensing, fuel and financing that haven't happened yet.
The first real cost numbers
Before 2025, SMR costs were vendor projections. Now there are two public data points worth knowing: the NuScale project that died and the Darlington project being built.
Example: Darlington per kilowatt
OPG lists C$6.1 billion for the first BWRX-300 plus C$1.6 billion for systems shared by all four, and C$20.9 billion for all four.
- First unit with common costs: C$7,700,000,000 ÷ 300,000 kW ≈ C$25,700 per kW.
- First unit alone: C$6,100,000,000 ÷ 300,000 kW ≈ C$20,300 per kW.
- All four: C$20,900,000,000 ÷ 1,200,000 kW ≈ C$17,400 per kW.
- Implied cost of units 2 to 4: C$20.9 billion minus C$7.7 billion = C$13.2 billion, or C$4.4 billion each, about C$14,700 per kW.
So OPG expects each later unit to cost roughly 28 percent less than the first one alone (C$4.4 billion versus C$6.1 billion). That is the learning curve SMR supporters predict, written into a real budget. Whether it holds is what the next four years will show. For scale, the costs and timelines lesson puts Vogtle 3 and 4 at about US$15,700 per kW. These are Canadian dollars, so convert before comparing.
Example: the NuScale lesson in one division
The Carbon Free Power Project's estimate rose to $9.3 billion for 462 MWe. $9,300,000,000 ÷ 462,000 kW ≈ $20,100 per kW. The target power price rose from $58 to $89 per MWh, and the $89 already counted an estimated $30 per MWh subsidy from the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, so the unsubsidized figure was near $119. UAMPS member utilities had the right to withdraw, enough did, and the project ended in November 2023. POWER Magazine reported the project had received $232 million in DOE support by then. The NRC never rejected anything. The buyers walked.
The NuScale case matters in Idaho because the plant was to be built at Idaho National Laboratory, and the participants were public power systems in the region. The lesson local officials drew: public power members carry real risk until they have a firm price and a firm exit date.
The strongest case on each side
| Supporters argue | Critics argue |
|---|---|
| Nuclear runs around the clock; the U.S. fleet averaged a 91 percent capacity factor in 2025, per EIA. Data centers and factories need that. | Reliability is wasted if the plant arrives in 2035 at twice the price. Gas, batteries and grid upgrades can be built in a few years. |
| Carbon-free power with a small land footprint. | Cheaper carbon-free options exist now; every dollar spent on a late reactor is a dollar not spent on them. |
| Permanent, well-paid operating jobs, often at retiring coal sites like Kemmerer, reusing grid connections and workers. | Construction jobs are temporary, and operating staff per megawatt is high for small units, which hurts cost. |
| Smaller projects put less money at risk per project, and repeat orders cut costs (OPG's own budget shows it). | First units have come in high per kilowatt (NuScale, Darlington), and the 2020 MIT study of U.S. history found little learning between plants. |
| Tech companies can absorb first-of-a-kind premiums so ratepayers don't. | Deals are often options and memorandums; if a buyer walks, regulated customers or taxpayers can be left holding costs. |
| Passive safety and smaller cores justify smaller emergency zones (lesson 6). | Waste per unit of energy may be higher for some SMRs (lesson 9), and there is still no repository. |
The supporters' side is carried by the Nuclear Energy Institute, utilities like TVA and OPG, and DOE, whose Liftoff report argues a committed order book of five to ten deployments of one design is what drives costs down. The skeptics' side is carried by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, which tracked the NuScale cost increases, and the Union of Concerned Scientists.
Where the evidence points: on reliability and carbon, the supporters are right about the existing fleet. On cost, first units in North America have been expensive, and the cost declines are a forecast that only a built series can prove. On timelines, the 2026 permits and construction starts are real progress, and every commercial SMR still sits at least four years from power. The honest position for a local official is that SMRs are worth watching and worth planning for, and that no community should take on cost risk for a first-of-a-kind unit without a firm price, a firm exit and someone else holding the overrun.
Common mix-ups
- Claim: NuScale failed because the NRC blocked it. What the evidence shows: The NRC approved the design. The project ended when the price rose and buyers withdrew.
- Claim: Data center companies have ordered dozens of SMRs. What the evidence shows: Most deals are options, equity stakes or framework agreements. Few are firm orders with construction under way.
- Claim: SMRs are already producing power in North America. What the evidence shows: As of October 2026 none was. Darlington's first unit targets grid connection by the end of 2030.
Reporting angle
- For any announced deal, ask which bin it belongs in: permit, contract, equity, option or memorandum. Ask for the document.
- Ask the developer for cost per kilowatt in its own numbers, in what year's dollars, and whether common and financing costs are included.
- For public power or co-op participation, ask about withdrawal rights, the deadline to exercise them and what members owe if they leave.
- At the state utility commission, watch for integrated resource plans or certificate filings that list an SMR. That is where costs enter regulated rates.
- Ask local proponents to explain the NuScale cancellation and what would be different this time. A team that can't answer that hasn't done its homework.
Research angle
- OPG's Darlington SMR page posts costs and quarterly construction updates.
- IEEFA's NuScale analysis documents the 2023 cost escalation.
- DOE Liftoff: Advanced Nuclear lays out the order-book argument and cost targets.
- MIT's 2020 study on overruns (Trancik, Buongiorno and colleagues in Joule) is the standard reference on why costs rise.
- Company investor filings on SEC EDGAR (X-energy, Oklo, NuScale, Centrus) give risk factors and schedules in language lawyers had to sign off on.
Check yourself
1. OPG's published cost for the first Darlington BWRX-300 is C$6.1 billion plus C$1.6 billion in common costs. About how much is that per kilowatt for a 300 MWe unit?
C$7.7 billion ÷ 300,000 kW ≈ C$25,700 per kW. Without the common costs it is about C$20,300 per kW.
2. Why was the NuScale Carbon Free Power Project, planned at Idaho National Laboratory, cancelled in November 2023?
Cost estimates rose from $5.3 billion to $9.3 billion and the target price to $89 per MWh; the project could not reach its subscription goal.
3. Which project had nuclear construction under way in the United States in October 2026?
TerraPower announced construction began April 23, 2026, after the March 4 permit. The others are in planning or review.
4. OPG's estimate for four BWRX-300s is C$20.9 billion. What is the average per kilowatt across all four?
C$20.9 billion ÷ 1,200,000 kW ≈ C$17,400 per kW, lower than the first unit because common costs are shared and later units repeat the work.
5. TVA's stated priority for Clinch River financing, per World Nuclear News, is what?
TVA said it was negotiating cost sharing with partners with that aim; no construction date had been announced.
6. Where does the evidence point most clearly on SMR costs as of October 2026?
First-of-a-kind estimates at Darlington and the cancelled NuScale project were high per kilowatt. Learning-curve savings remain a projection.
Terms in this lesson
- First-of-a-kind (FOAK)
- The first units of a new design, which carry design completion, supply chain setup and learning costs.
- Common costs
- Site-wide costs such as intake structures, roads and support buildings shared by several units.
- Subscription
- In public power projects, the share of a plant's output that member utilities agree to buy.
- Memorandum of understanding (MOU)
- A non-binding statement of intent to work together. Not a purchase, order or contract.
- A flexible federal contract form used by DOE and the military for prototypes, outside standard procurement rules.
Sources
- OPG: Darlington SMR project page checked 2026-10
- World Nuclear News: First construction permit issued for BWRX-300 SMR in the US (Sept. 30, 2026) checked 2026-10
- ANS: DOE selects TVA and Holtec for SMR awards (Dec. 3, 2025) checked 2026-10
- TerraPower: News (construction April 23, 2026; Meta agreement Jan. 9, 2026) checked 2026-10
- NRC: Long Mott Energy construction permit application checked 2026-10
- Nasdaq: X-energy Q1 earnings call highlights (June 4, 2026) checked 2026-10
- Amazon: Amazon and X-energy SMR projects (Oct. 2025) checked 2026-10
- Google: New nuclear clean energy agreement with Kairos Power (Oct. 2024) checked 2026-10
- Meta: Meta announces nuclear energy projects (Jan. 9, 2026) checked 2026-10
- ANS: Holtec submits partial construction permit application for SMRs at Palisades (Jan. 14, 2026) checked 2026-10
- POWER Magazine: The Janus five (Aug. 27, 2026) checked 2026-10
- World Nuclear News: Idaho SMR project terminated (Nov. 9, 2023) checked 2026-10
- World Nuclear News: Further cost refinements announced for first US SMR plant (Jan. 9, 2023; $30/MWh IRA subsidy) checked 2026-10
- POWER Magazine: UAMPS and NuScale Power terminate SMR nuclear project (Nov. 8, 2023) checked 2026-10
- IEEFA: Eye-popping new cost estimates released for NuScale SMR (2023) checked 2026-10
- POWER Magazine: NuScale's 77-MWe SMR clears NRC review (CFPP cancellation) checked 2026-10
- DOE Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Advanced Nuclear checked 2026-10
- MIT News: Study identifies reasons for soaring nuclear plant cost overruns (2020) checked 2026-10
- Aalo Atomics: company site (Aalo-X co-located data center plan, 2027) checked 2026-10