Hydrogen, Emerging Options and How to Judge a New Energy Claim

Hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe and almost none of it lies around free on Earth. It is bound up in water and hydrocarbons, so you have to spend energy to pull it loose. That makes hydrogen an energy carrier, like electricity, and not an energy source like sunlight or gas. Everything about its economics follows from that.

How hydrogen is made

The U.S. produces about 10 million metric tons of hydrogen a year, according to DOE, mostly for oil refining and ammonia fertilizer. Nearly all of it today comes from natural gas through steam methane reforming, which releases CO2. Industry shorthand uses colors: "gray" for reforming without carbon capture, "blue" for reforming with capture, "green" for electrolysis with renewable power. The colors are marketing labels, not standards; what matters legally for the federal credit was lifecycle emissions per kilogram.

Electrolysis splits water with electricity. Hydrogen holds roughly 33 kWh of energy per kilogram (on a lower heating value basis), and today's electrolyzers use roughly 50 to 55 kWh of electricity to make that kilogram. DOE's Hydrogen Shot goal is to cut the cost of clean hydrogen 80 percent to $1 per kilogram within a decade; DOE says renewable hydrogen costs about $5 per kilogram.

Electricity per kg:      52 kWh
Power at $30/MWh:        52 x $0.030 = $1.56 per kg
Power at $60/MWh:        52 x $0.060 = $3.12 per kg

The round-trip problem

Hydrogen can store energy for weeks or seasons, something batteries cannot do cheaply. But each conversion loses energy. Using illustrative efficiencies (actual equipment varies):

About a third comes back, against roughly 82 percent for lithium-ion batteries in EIA's measurements. So hydrogen for grid storage only makes sense where its strength (long duration, large volume) is worth paying that loss. Utah's Intermountain Power Project was built to blend hydrogen made from excess renewable power into a gas turbine, with salt caverns for storage; EIA noted in May 2025 that it was scheduled to come online that year; check how much hydrogen it actually burns before citing it as a working example.

Where hydrogen fits

Policy whiplash, 2022 to 2025

The 2022 Inflation Reduction Act created the 45V clean hydrogen production credit, worth up to $3 per kilogram for the cleanest production, for facilities that began construction before 2033. In 2023 DOE selected seven regional hydrogen hubs for up to $7 billion. Then the 2025 tax law, Public Law 119-21, moved the 45V deadline: facilities must now begin construction before January 1, 2028. On October 1, 2025, DOE terminated $7.56 billion in awards for 223 projects, including $1.2 billion for California's ARCHES hub and $1 billion for the Pacific Northwest Hydrogen Association, which covered projects in Washington, Oregon and Montana. The Pacific Northwest group appealed; ARCHES officials said the hub would continue.

Supporters of the hubs argued they would build an industry and cut emissions from hard-to-electrify sectors. Skeptics argued hydrogen subsidies were costly per ton of CO2 avoided and that electrolysis on a carbon-heavy grid could raise emissions. Both arguments turned on the same technical detail: where the electricity comes from, and in which hours.

Other emerging options, briefly

• Enhanced geothermal: Fervo's Cape Station in Utah began sending power to the grid in September 2026 (see the geothermal lesson). The next test is long-run reservoir performance and cost.
• Long-duration batteries: Form Energy's iron-air system is designed to discharge for up to 100 hours using reversible rusting of iron and a water-based electrolyte.
• Offshore and floating wind: Large resource near coasts; Lazard's 2026 unsubsidized range was $105 to $167/MWh, and U.S. projects faced federal permitting reversals in 2025.
• Advanced nuclear and small modular reactors: Covered in the nuclear module.
• Perovskite and tandem solar cells: Higher lab efficiencies stacked on silicon; durability in the field is the open question.

How to judge a new energy claim

Breakthrough announcements arrive weekly. Most are real research described in unreal terms. Run every one through these questions before you repeat it, cite it or vote on it.