Farm Economics: Markets, Programs, Land Values and Who Owns the Ground

A farm is a small business with a large, illiquid asset under it. Most years the business side earns modest returns. The land side quietly appreciates. Most claims about farm economics go wrong by mixing the two.

Idaho agriculture in numbers

The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service takes the Census of Agriculture every five years. The 2022 census is the newest published; the next covers 2027. Its Idaho state profile reports:

Measure	2022	Change from 2017
Farms	22,877	Down 8%
Land in farms	11,547,963 acres	Down 1%
Average farm size	505 acres	Up 8%
Market value of products sold	$10.89 billion (19th in U.S.)	Up 44%
Crops share	$4.76 billion (44%)
Livestock, poultry and products share	$6.13 billion (56%)
Government payments	$132.4 million	Up 2%
Producers	43,333

Top commodity groups

Group	Sales	U.S. rank
Milk from cows	$3.73 billion	4th
Cattle and calves	$2.18 billion	10th
Grains, oilseeds, dry beans and peas	$1.63 billion	22nd
Vegetables, melons and potatoes	$1.60 billion	4th
Other crops and hay	$1.39 billion	2nd

Milk alone was about 34 percent of all Idaho farm sales (3.73 divided by 10.89). Hay, much of it alfalfa, ranks second nationally partly because it feeds those cows. That link between irrigated hay ground and dairies is why water fights and dairy fights in Idaho are often the same fight.

Markets

Most crops and milk sell at prices set far from the farm. Wheat and barley follow national and world markets. Potatoes are often grown under contract with processors, with the price negotiated before planting. Milk prices track national cheese, butter and powder markets through pricing formulas. Hay is sold mostly locally and regionally, often to dairies. A drought in one place, a trade dispute or a cheese glut can swing an Idaho farm's income by more than anything the farmer does.

Farm programs, as of October 2026

The main federal safety net comes from the farm bill, as amended by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Public Law 119-21), signed July 4, 2025. USDA's January 2026 rule implements its changes:

Program	How it works	2025 law changes
Price Loss Coverage (PLC)	Pays when a crop's national marketing-year price falls below its effective reference price	Higher statutory reference prices for 2025 to 2030 crops; effective reference price formula uses 88% of a 5-year Olympic average, capped at 115% of the reference price
Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC)	Pays when county (or individual) revenue falls below a guarantee	Guarantee raised from 86% to 90% of benchmark revenue; payment rate capped at 12% of benchmark
Payment limit	Cap per person or entity	$155,000, indexed to inflation from the 2025 crop year
Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC)	Pays when the milk price minus a feed cost formula falls below a chosen margin	Tier 1 limit raised from 5 to 6 million pounds; production history updated to the best of 2021, 2022 or 2023; reauthorized through 2031
Base acres	Acres eligible for ARC and PLC	Up to 30 million additional base acres nationally in 2026

Crop insurance, subsidized through USDA's Risk Management Agency, is a separate safety net and for many crops the bigger one. Ad hoc disaster and trade aid have also been large in some years. Locally, USDA's Farm Service Agency county offices administer ARC, PLC and DMC.

Land values

USDA's Land Values 2026 Summary, released July 31, 2026, reported:

Dollars per acre	Idaho 2025	Idaho 2026	Change	U.S. 2026
Farm real estate	4,580	4,750	+3.7%	4,500
All cropland	6,050	6,170	+2.0%	6,020
Irrigated cropland	9,290	9,500	+2.3%
Non-irrigated cropland	2,530	2,550	+0.8%
Pasture	2,400	2,500	+4.2%	2,000

The gap between irrigated and dry cropland is the price of water. $9,500 minus $2,550 = $6,950 an acre, or about 73 percent of the irrigated value. When a water right is curtailed, transferred away, or put in doubt, that is roughly the value at stake.

Who owns farmland

Ownership questions often turn into foreign ownership questions. The data:

• USDA's AFIDA report found foreign persons held about 44.9 million acres of U.S. agricultural land at the end of 2023, about 3.5 percent of privately held agricultural land. Canada accounted for about a third. China held about 277,000 acres, slightly under 1 percent of foreign-held land. Almost half of foreign-held acres were forest.
• In Idaho, the same report lists 132,215 foreign-held acres, about 0.9 percent of privately held agricultural land. Ag Proud, citing earlier USDA data, reported about 122,669 acres. Figures change with each annual report.
• USDA has since posted the next report, covering holdings through December 31, 2024 and released in January 2026. A farmdoc daily analysis of it counts about 46.3 million acres with a reportable foreign interest, a total that includes long-term leases and forest land. As of October 2026, pull that report's Idaho table before you cite a current state figure.
• Idaho House Bill 173 (2023) bars foreign governments and foreign state-controlled enterprises from acquiring a controlling interest in Idaho agricultural land, water rights, mining claims or mineral rights. It does not bar individual foreign citizens, and prior holdings were grandfathered. House Bill 496 (2024) added forest land.

The bigger ownership question in most counties is domestic: aging owners, heirs who do not farm, investors, and land rented by operators who own little of what they farm. County assessor and recorder files show who holds title. Census tables on tenure show how much land is rented.