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Lesson 4 of 9 · about 16 minutes

Bias and Errors: How AI Gets Things Wrong

You'll be able to

  • Name the points where bias can enter an AI system
  • Describe documented cases of biased or wrong AI output with their sources
  • Explain why language models make things up
  • Read a hallucination rate and say what task and grader produced it
  • Ask a vendor or agency for error rates broken out by group

An AI system learns from examples. If the examples are lopsided, the system is lopsided. If the goal it is trained toward is slightly wrong, it gets very good at the slightly wrong thing. And a language model, built to produce likely text, will produce likely-sounding false text whenever it does not know. These are separate problems with separate fixes, and lumping them all under "AI is biased" makes them harder to fix or even talk about.

Where bias gets in

Data who is in it, who is not Target what it is told to predict Model and tuning thresholds, feedback Deployment who uses it, on whom
Bias can enter at every stage. The fix depends on which one.
  • Data. If a face dataset is mostly light-skinned men, the system will be worse on everyone else. If historical hiring data reflects who got hired, a model trained on it learns to repeat that.
  • Target. What the model is told to predict. This is the sneakiest stage, because the data can be accurate and the target still wrong.
  • Model and tuning. A match threshold set to catch more shoplifters also flags more innocent shoppers. Human feedback used to tune chatbots carries the raters' views.
  • Deployment. A tool tested on one population and used on another. A tool used on some neighborhoods more than others.

Documented cases

The hospital algorithm

In 2019, Ziad Obermeyer and colleagues published a study in Science of a commercial algorithm used by health systems to pick patients for extra care programs. It predicted future health costs as a stand-in for health need. Because less money had historically been spent on Black patients with the same conditions, the algorithm scored them as healthier than equally sick white patients. The researchers estimated that removing the bias would raise the share of Black patients flagged for extra help from 17.7 percent to 46.5 percent, and they worked with the developer to reduce it. Race was never an input. The proxy did the damage.

Faces

Joy Buolamwini and Timnit Gebru's 2018 Gender Shades study tested three commercial gender classifiers. The worst error rate for lighter-skinned men was 0.8 percent. For darker-skinned women, error rates reached 34.7 percent. A year later the National Institute of Standards and Technology tested 189 face recognition algorithms from 99 developers on 18 million images (report NISTIR 8280). Most showed demographic differentials. In one-to-one matching, false positives for some groups were often 10 to 100 times higher. NIST also found that the most accurate algorithms tended to show the smallest differences, which means "face recognition is biased" is too blunt. Some systems are much worse than others, and you have to know which one an agency bought.

In December 2023 the Federal Trade Commission charged Rite Aid over its use of face recognition in hundreds of stores, saying it lacked reasonable safeguards to prevent harm to customers wrongly flagged. The settlement banned Rite Aid from using face recognition for surveillance for five years.

Confidently wrong

In March 2024 The Markup tested New York City's MyCity business chatbot, built on Microsoft's Azure AI services. It told users that landlords could refuse housing vouchers, that businesses could go cash-free and that bosses could take workers' tips. City law says otherwise on all three. It gave different answers to the same question. The city called it a pilot and kept it running.

In May 2025 the Chicago Sun-Times and at least one edition of The Philadelphia Inquirer ran a syndicated summer reading list in which 10 of 15 books did not exist. The freelance writer said AI had partly generated it and called it a huge mistake. Nobody in the chain checked whether the books were real.

Why language models make things up

A language model predicts the next likely word. It has no separate fact database it consults, unless one is connected. When it knows a fact well, the likely words are the true ones. When it does not, the likely words are the ones that sound like a true answer: a plausible book title, a plausible court name, a plausible statistic.

A September 2025 paper by Adam Tauman Kalai and colleagues argues the habit persists because of how models are graded. Most benchmarks give a point for a right answer and nothing for "I don't know," so a model that always guesses scores higher than one that admits uncertainty. Their proposed fix is to change how the popular benchmarks score abstaining.

Reading a hallucination rate

Every hallucination rate is the answer to a particular test. Change the test and the rate changes.

BenchmarkTaskGraderWhat it tells youWhat it does not
Vectara leaderboardSummarize a supplied documentVectara's HHEM model checks consistency with the sourceHow often a model adds things that are not in the text it was given. Rates listed May 2026 ran from 1.8 to 24.2 percent.How it does on open questions with no source
OpenAI SimpleQA (Oct 2024)4,326 short fact questionsA model compares answers to reference answersCorrect, incorrect and not attempted rates. GPT-4o scored under 40 percent correct when released.Long answers, reasoning, or answers with web search turned on
Your own spot checkQuestions about your beatYou, against recordsHow it does on the things you will actually askGeneral performance

Notice the gap. A model can be very faithful when summarizing a document you hand it and still invent facts when asked from memory. That is why the safest use for anyone checking facts is giving the model the source and asking it to work only from that, then checking anyway.

Example: what "low" hallucination means at scale

The invented county of Ash Hollow uses an AI tool to summarize 600 public comments a month. The vendor cites a 3 percent hallucination rate on a summarization benchmark.

If that rate held on county documents, 600 times 0.03 is 18 summaries a month containing at least one claim not in the original comment. Over a year, 216.

If staff spot-check 10 percent of summaries, they will see about 1.8 bad ones a month and miss about 16. Is that acceptable? It depends on what the summaries are used for. For a staff overview, maybe. For a record of what citizens said to their government, that is a lot of wrong.

Common mix-ups

  • Claim: Taking race out of the inputs makes an algorithm fair. What the evidence shows: The hospital algorithm never used race. Zip code, spending or arrest history can carry the same pattern.
  • Claim: All face recognition is equally biased. What the evidence shows: NIST found large differences between algorithms, with the most accurate generally the most even. Which product and which settings matter.
  • Claim: A model's hallucination rate is a single known number. What the evidence shows: Rates depend on task, test set and grader. A summarization score does not transfer to open questions.
  • Claim: If the AI cites a source, the source exists. What the evidence shows: Invented citations and book titles are one of the most common documented failures.

Reporting angle

  • When an agency uses face recognition, risk scoring or automated screening, request: the product name and version, the vendor's validation report, any NIST test results for that algorithm, the match threshold setting, and error rates by demographic group.
  • Ask how many decisions were made with the tool and how many were later reversed by a human. A reversal log is a ground truth record.
  • Ask what happens when the tool is wrong: who reviews, how a person appeals, and whether anyone has.
  • Test public-facing chatbots yourself, as The Markup did. Ask the same question several times and in more than one language. Keep screenshots with timestamps.

Research angle

Check yourself

1. In the 2019 Science study of a hospital risk algorithm, what caused the racial bias?

2. NIST's 2019 test of 189 face recognition algorithms found what about one-to-one matching?

3. Vectara's leaderboard listed hallucination rates from 1.8 to 24.2 percent in May 2026. What task produced those numbers?

4. According to Kalai and colleagues (2025), why do language models keep hallucinating?

5. On OpenAI's SimpleQA benchmark, an answer that says 'I don't know' is graded as what?

6. A vendor says its tool is '95 percent accurate.' What is the best first follow-up?

Terms in this lesson

Proxy variable
A measurable stand-in for the thing you really want to predict, such as spending standing in for illness.
Hallucination
A confident AI output that is false or not supported by its source, such as an invented quote or citation.
False positive
The system says yes when the truth is no, such as a face match to the wrong person.
Demographic differential
A difference in a system's error rates between groups of people.
Benchmark
A fixed test set used to score and compare AI systems.

Full glossary

Sources