Lesson 4 of 9 · about 16 minutes
Bias and Errors: How AI Gets Things Wrong
You'll be able to
- Name the points where bias can enter an AI system
- Describe documented cases of biased or wrong AI output with their sources
- Explain why language models make things up
- Read a hallucination rate and say what task and grader produced it
- Ask a vendor or agency for error rates broken out by group
An AI system learns from examples. If the examples are lopsided, the system is lopsided. If the goal it is trained toward is slightly wrong, it gets very good at the slightly wrong thing. And a language model, built to produce likely text, will produce likely-sounding false text whenever it does not know. These are separate problems with separate fixes, and lumping them all under "AI is biased" makes them harder to fix or even talk about.
Where bias gets in
- Data. If a face dataset is mostly light-skinned men, the system will be worse on everyone else. If historical hiring data reflects who got hired, a model trained on it learns to repeat that.
- Target. What the model is told to predict. This is the sneakiest stage, because the data can be accurate and the target still wrong.
- Model and tuning. A match threshold set to catch more shoplifters also flags more innocent shoppers. Human feedback used to tune chatbots carries the raters' views.
- Deployment. A tool tested on one population and used on another. A tool used on some neighborhoods more than others.
Documented cases
The hospital algorithm
In 2019, Ziad Obermeyer and colleagues published a study in Science of a commercial algorithm used by health systems to pick patients for extra care programs. It predicted future health costs as a stand-in for health need. Because less money had historically been spent on Black patients with the same conditions, the algorithm scored them as healthier than equally sick white patients. The researchers estimated that removing the bias would raise the share of Black patients flagged for extra help from 17.7 percent to 46.5 percent, and they worked with the developer to reduce it. Race was never an input. The proxy did the damage.
Faces
Joy Buolamwini and Timnit Gebru's 2018 Gender Shades study tested three commercial gender classifiers. The worst error rate for lighter-skinned men was 0.8 percent. For darker-skinned women, error rates reached 34.7 percent. A year later the National Institute of Standards and Technology tested 189 face recognition algorithms from 99 developers on 18 million images (report NISTIR 8280). Most showed demographic differentials. In one-to-one matching, false positives for some groups were often 10 to 100 times higher. NIST also found that the most accurate algorithms tended to show the smallest differences, which means "face recognition is biased" is too blunt. Some systems are much worse than others, and you have to know which one an agency bought.
In December 2023 the Federal Trade Commission charged Rite Aid over its use of face recognition in hundreds of stores, saying it lacked reasonable safeguards to prevent harm to customers wrongly flagged. The settlement banned Rite Aid from using face recognition for surveillance for five years.
Confidently wrong
In March 2024 The Markup tested New York City's MyCity business chatbot, built on Microsoft's Azure AI services. It told users that landlords could refuse housing vouchers, that businesses could go cash-free and that bosses could take workers' tips. City law says otherwise on all three. It gave different answers to the same question. The city called it a pilot and kept it running.
In May 2025 the Chicago Sun-Times and at least one edition of The Philadelphia Inquirer ran a syndicated summer reading list in which 10 of 15 books did not exist. The freelance writer said AI had partly generated it and called it a huge mistake. Nobody in the chain checked whether the books were real.
Why language models make things up
A language model predicts the next likely word. It has no separate fact database it consults, unless one is connected. When it knows a fact well, the likely words are the true ones. When it does not, the likely words are the ones that sound like a true answer: a plausible book title, a plausible court name, a plausible statistic.
A September 2025 paper by Adam Tauman Kalai and colleagues argues the habit persists because of how models are graded. Most benchmarks give a point for a right answer and nothing for "I don't know," so a model that always guesses scores higher than one that admits uncertainty. Their proposed fix is to change how the popular benchmarks score abstaining.
Reading a hallucination rate
Every hallucination rate is the answer to a particular test. Change the test and the rate changes.
| Benchmark | Task | Grader | What it tells you | What it does not |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vectara leaderboard | Summarize a supplied document | Vectara's HHEM model checks consistency with the source | How often a model adds things that are not in the text it was given. Rates listed May 2026 ran from 1.8 to 24.2 percent. | How it does on open questions with no source |
| OpenAI SimpleQA (Oct 2024) | 4,326 short fact questions | A model compares answers to reference answers | Correct, incorrect and not attempted rates. GPT-4o scored under 40 percent correct when released. | Long answers, reasoning, or answers with web search turned on |
| Your own spot check | Questions about your beat | You, against records | How it does on the things you will actually ask | General performance |
Notice the gap. A model can be very faithful when summarizing a document you hand it and still invent facts when asked from memory. That is why the safest use for anyone checking facts is giving the model the source and asking it to work only from that, then checking anyway.
Example: what "low" hallucination means at scale
The invented county of Ash Hollow uses an AI tool to summarize 600 public comments a month. The vendor cites a 3 percent hallucination rate on a summarization benchmark.
If that rate held on county documents, 600 times 0.03 is 18 summaries a month containing at least one claim not in the original comment. Over a year, 216.
If staff spot-check 10 percent of summaries, they will see about 1.8 bad ones a month and miss about 16. Is that acceptable? It depends on what the summaries are used for. For a staff overview, maybe. For a record of what citizens said to their government, that is a lot of wrong.
Common mix-ups
- Claim: Taking race out of the inputs makes an algorithm fair. What the evidence shows: The hospital algorithm never used race. Zip code, spending or arrest history can carry the same pattern.
- Claim: All face recognition is equally biased. What the evidence shows: NIST found large differences between algorithms, with the most accurate generally the most even. Which product and which settings matter.
- Claim: A model's hallucination rate is a single known number. What the evidence shows: Rates depend on task, test set and grader. A summarization score does not transfer to open questions.
- Claim: If the AI cites a source, the source exists. What the evidence shows: Invented citations and book titles are one of the most common documented failures.
Reporting angle
- When an agency uses face recognition, risk scoring or automated screening, request: the product name and version, the vendor's validation report, any NIST test results for that algorithm, the match threshold setting, and error rates by demographic group.
- Ask how many decisions were made with the tool and how many were later reversed by a human. A reversal log is a ground truth record.
- Ask what happens when the tool is wrong: who reviews, how a person appeals, and whether anyone has.
- Test public-facing chatbots yourself, as The Markup did. Ask the same question several times and in more than one language. Keep screenshots with timestamps.
Research angle
- NIST face recognition study: error rates by demographic group across many algorithms.
- Gender Shades: the peer-reviewed audit of commercial face analysis.
- Science study on health care algorithm bias: the paper and its data on a widely used risk score.
- FTC v. Rite Aid: the case file on misuse of face recognition.
- Vectara hallucination leaderboard: a public error-rate test for summaries.
- SimpleQA: a factual accuracy benchmark and its results.
Check yourself
1. In the 2019 Science study of a hospital risk algorithm, what caused the racial bias?
Obermeyer and colleagues found that predicting cost rather than illness built in the gap in spending. The proxy carried the bias, not a race field.
2. NIST's 2019 test of 189 face recognition algorithms found what about one-to-one matching?
Most algorithms showed demographic differentials, often by a factor of 10 to 100. NIST also found the most accurate algorithms tended to be the most even.
3. Vectara's leaderboard listed hallucination rates from 1.8 to 24.2 percent in May 2026. What task produced those numbers?
The leaderboard measures whether summaries stick to the facts in the given passage, graded by Vectara's HHEM model. It says little about open questions with no source.
4. According to Kalai and colleagues (2025), why do language models keep hallucinating?
Benchmarks that score only right answers make guessing a better strategy than abstaining, so models learn to guess.
5. On OpenAI's SimpleQA benchmark, an answer that says 'I don't know' is graded as what?
SimpleQA has three grades: correct, incorrect and not attempted. That lets it separate a model that is wrong from one that declines.
6. A vendor says its tool is '95 percent accurate.' What is the best first follow-up?
An overall accuracy figure can hide large error gaps between groups and depends entirely on the test data. The Gender Shades study found error rates of 0.8 percent for one group and up to 34.7 percent for another in the same systems.
Terms in this lesson
- Proxy variable
- A measurable stand-in for the thing you really want to predict, such as spending standing in for illness.
- Hallucination
- A confident AI output that is false or not supported by its source, such as an invented quote or citation.
- False positive
- The system says yes when the truth is no, such as a face match to the wrong person.
- Demographic differential
- A difference in a system's error rates between groups of people.
- Benchmark
- A fixed test set used to score and compare AI systems.
Sources
- Obermeyer et al., Dissecting racial bias in an algorithm used to manage the health of populations, Science 2019 checked 2026-10
- Chicago Booth Center for Applied AI: Algorithmic bias checked 2026-10
- NIST: Study evaluates effects of race, age, sex on face recognition software (NISTIR 8280) checked 2026-10
- Buolamwini and Gebru, Gender Shades, PMLR 2018 checked 2026-10
- FTC v. Rite Aid Corporation case page checked 2026-10
- The Markup: NYC's AI chatbot tells businesses to break the law checked 2026-10
- NPR: Fake summer reading list generated with AI ran in newspapers checked 2026-10
- Vectara hallucination leaderboard checked 2026-10
- OpenAI: Introducing SimpleQA checked 2026-10
- Kalai, Nachum, Vempala, Zhang: Why Language Models Hallucinate (arXiv 2509.04664) checked 2026-10