Lesson 6 of 10 · about 18 minutes
The Campaign Plan and the Budget
You'll be able to
- Estimate turnout for a May or November local election from real Idaho figures and your own county's canvass
- Calculate a win number and a contact goal, with the arithmetic shown
- Get a voter list legally and stay inside the use limits in Idaho Code 34-437 and 34-437A
- Build a calendar backward from election day using the filing window in Idaho Code 34-1404
- Draft a budget for a $3,000 or $15,000 race and know which costs go on Sunshine reports
Start here: the short version
- Local races are decided by small electorates. Odd-year city elections in Idaho's largest county have drawn roughly 20 to 45 percent of registered voters in recent cycles. Plan for the voters who show up, not the whole roll.
- Your win number is registered voters x expected turnout x the share who vote in your race, divided by the number of serious candidates, plus a cushion. Write the arithmetic down.
- Any person may buy the voter list from the county clerk (Idaho Code 34-437) or the Secretary of State (34-437A) and use it for any political purpose. It may not be used to mail or deliver fundraising appeals or commercial offers.
- Build the calendar backward from election day. The filing window, the ballot mail-out and the Sunshine deadlines are fixed; everything else fits around them.
- A small race spends most of its money on things voters can hold: literature, signs and mail. Every item needs a "paid for by" line.
A campaign plan for a city council ward or a school zone fits on one page. That is its virtue. Most first-time local candidates do not lose for lack of a plan; they lose because the plan was in their head, where it kept changing. Writing it down forces the answers: how many votes you need, who those voters are, and what you will say to them, with dates and dollars attached. This lesson walks through each, with real Idaho turnout figures, the rules on voter lists, and two sample budgets.
Know the electorate
When the election is
Idaho holds local elections on a short list of dates. Idaho Code 34-106, amended in 2024 and again in 2025, allows elections on the third Tuesday in May and on the November general election date, plus an emergency special election in a declared disaster. Irrigation districts get extra February and August dates for questions Title 43 requires them to put to voters, and water districts are exempt. City initiatives and referendums go only on the November ballot in odd-numbered years. Lesson 1 maps which offices fall on which date; for planning, the point is that your election day is fixed by statute years in advance.
The date shapes the electorate. A partisan county race in an even-year November shares the ballot with Congress and sometimes the governor, so turnout is high and most voters will know little about you. An odd-year November city or trustee election has nothing above it, and the people who vote are mostly habitual local voters. A May election on a bond or a district seat may draw even fewer.
What turnout looks like
| Election | Turnout of registered voters | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Idaho statewide, November 2020 general | 81.16% | Idaho Press via KTVB, citing the state canvass |
| Idaho statewide, November 2018 general | 66.75% | Same |
| Idaho statewide, November 2022 general | 56.8% | Same |
| Boise citywide, November 2019 (mayor and council) | 33.4% | Syndicated report on Boise's 2023 turnout |
| Boise citywide, November 2023 (mayor and council) | 43.8% | Same |
| Boise citywide, November 2025 (council) | 34.6% | BoiseDev, Nov. 5, 2025 |
| Ada County, all November 2021 local races | 23.8% | BoiseDev |
| Ada County, all November 2025 local races | 29.6% | BoiseDev |
| Meridian, November 2021 (three council districts) | 21.5% | BoiseDev |
| Garden City, November 2021 and 2025 (contested mayor) | 38% and 43.8% | BoiseDev |
The pattern is plain. Even-year general elections draw a majority of registered voters. Odd-year city elections draw a third or so, more when a mayor's race is contested, less when seats are uncontested. BoiseDev reported that in 2025 all three Meridian council candidates ran unopposed and citywide voters had only a levy to decide; turnout was 21 percent, and only 6,510 ballots came back from the districts that had a council name on the ballot. A contested race brings voters out. A dull one keeps them home.
These are Ada County numbers because they are the ones published and checked. Your county's turnout may be higher or lower. Get the real figure for your own jurisdiction: the county clerk's official canvass for the last two elections for your office, by precinct. Many clerks post canvass reports online; if yours does not, ask the elections office for them. The Secretary of State's voter registration totals give monthly registration counts by county and legislative district going back to 2008.
The voter list and what you may do with it
Idaho makes its voter list available to anyone. Under Idaho Code 34-437, a county clerk must give "any individual" a current list of the county's registered voters and their addresses, grouped by precinct, for the cost of reproducing it. Under 34-437A, the Secretary of State provides copies of the statewide list on the same cost basis. The Secretary of State's order form (revised November 2023) lists a voter registration report for $20, a registration report with voter history for $20, and an absentee ballot report for $10, statewide or by congressional or legislative district, delivered by download link or on a USB drive.
Both statutes say the same thing about use. The lists may be used "for any political purpose." They may not be used to mail or deliver advertisements or offers for any property, establishment, product or service, or to mail or deliver solicitations for money, services or anything of value. The order form makes the buyer sign an acknowledgement of that restriction under 34-437A(3), and says the form itself becomes a public record.
The second half of that rule catches campaigns. A postcard about your position on the water rate increase, sent to everyone on the list in your ward, is a political use. A letter asking those same voters to send a check is a solicitation for money, and the statute bars using list information to mail or deliver it. Build your fundraising list from people who have already given, signed up or asked to help, not from the voter file. If you are not sure whether a piece crosses the line, ask the Secretary of State's elections division before it goes out.
Voter history is the valuable part. It shows which elections each voter cast a ballot in (never how they voted). A list of voters who cast ballots in at least one of the last two odd-year city elections is a much smaller and more useful universe than the full roll.
The win number
The win number is how many votes you need, and it decides almost everything else in the plan: how many doors, how many pieces of mail, how much money. It takes four inputs.
- Registered voters in your district, ward or zone, from the county clerk or the voter list.
- Expected turnout, from the last two comparable elections for this office. Comparable matters: use the last odd-year city election, not last year's presidential race.
- Drop-off, the share of voters who cast a ballot but skip your race. Precinct canvass reports show it: compare total ballots with total votes in the race.
- The field: how many serious candidates, and whether the seat is "vote for one" or "vote for two."
Example: a ward race in Cedar Bluff
Cedar Bluff (invented) has a council seat in Ward 3, with 5,200 registered voters. In the last two odd-year city elections the ward's turnout was 28 percent and 34 percent. Use the average: (28 + 34) / 2 = 31 percent.
- Expected ballots: 5,200 x 0.31 = 1,612
- Drop-off: the canvass showed 6 percent of ward ballots skipped the council race. Votes in the race: 1,612 x 0.94 = 1,515 (rounded down)
- Two serious candidates: half of 1,515 is 757.5, so a bare majority is 758
- Cushion of 10 percent for a turnout surprise: 758 x 1.10 = 834
Win number: about 834 votes. That is the number to put at the top of the plan.
Now the contact goal. Suppose the campaign expects to persuade or confirm about one in three of the voters it reaches in a real conversation. To find 834 supporters it needs about 834 x 3 = 2,502 conversations. If a volunteer reaches someone at roughly one door in four, that is about 2,502 x 4 = 10,008 door knocks, more than the ward has households, so the plan needs repeat visits, mail and phone calls to fill the gap. These conversion rates are assumptions for the example; track your own from the first two weekends and revise.
Some adjustments come up often. In a three-way race with no runoff, a plurality wins, so the target drops: in the example above, 1,515 / 3 is 505, but a real three-way race rarely splits evenly, and 40 percent (606) is a safer goal than 34 percent. In a "vote for two" at-large race, each voter can pick two candidates, so the useful figure is how many votes the second-place winner got last time. Look it up in the canvass and aim above it.
How to: write the one-page plan
- Top line: the office, the election date, and your win number with the arithmetic beside it.
- The voters: your universe (for example, everyone in the ward who voted in one of the last two city elections), its size, and which precincts matter most from the canvass.
- The case: three sentences: who you are, what you will do in the office, why it matters to the people in your district. Lesson 1 and course 26 help you check that what you promise is something the office can do.
- The contacts: the conversation goal and how you will reach it: doors, phone, mail, forums, events.
- The calendar: filing dates, Sunshine dates, ballot mail-out, election day, and weekly targets between them.
- The money: a total budget and a fundraising goal, with dates by which the money must be in hand.
- The people: treasurer, volunteer coordinator, and the names of the first ten volunteers.
The message and the case for you
Local voters ask a narrow question: will this person do the job well, and do they see the problem the way I do? The message is your answer in plain words. Start from the office. A highway district commissioner decides road maintenance priorities and budgets. A library trustee sets policy for the library and hires the director. A school trustee approves budgets, adopts policy and hires the superintendent. A message that promises things the office cannot do tells informed voters you have not done the homework. Course 26's Who Governs What and The Budget Cycle are a fast check.
Then pick one or two local issues and say where you stand. The invented water rate increase in Cedar Bluff is a good model: you can be for it with conditions, against it until an audit is done, or for a phased version, and each is a clear position a voter can remember. Be specific about what you would do in your first year. "I will ask for a public line-by-line review of the water fund before any rate vote" beats "I will bring accountability."
Write the case in three versions: one sentence for a door, one paragraph for a mailer, and a two-minute answer for a forum. Use the same words in all three. Repetition feels dull to the candidate long before it reaches the voter.
The calendar, built backward
Start at election day and work back. Some dates are fixed by law; the rest are your choices.
| When (before election day) | What | Fixed by |
|---|---|---|
| Election day | Polls open; poll watchers in place if you appointed one (lesson 7) | 34-106 |
| Final four weeks | Peak doors and mail; follow up with identified supporters about voting | Your plan |
| Each month in the election year | Sunshine report due the 10th once you pass $500 | 67-6607, 67-6608 |
| 10th Friday, 5 p.m. | Filing closes for political subdivision races under 34-1404 | 34-1404 |
| 12th Monday, 8 a.m. | Filing opens | 34-1404 |
| 4 to 6 months out | Decide; line up treasurer; order the voter list; collect petition signatures if your office uses them (lesson 3) | Your plan |
| 6 to 12 months out | Attend meetings of the body you want to join; read its budget; meet the clerk | Your plan |
Under Idaho Code 34-1404, for elections in political subdivisions, filing opens at 8:00 a.m. on the twelfth Monday before the election and closes at 5:00 p.m. on the tenth Friday before it, with the county clerk, on a petition signed by at least five electors of your zone or district. Partisan county offices use a different calendar tied to the May primary. Lesson 3 has the details for each office, including filing fees and petitions in lieu of fees. The point for planning is that the declaration comes about ten weeks before election day, so most of the real campaign happens after filing closes, and the work that wins it (lists, volunteers, money, message) has to be ready before filing opens.
Ask your county clerk when ballots will be mailed to voters who requested absentee ballots and when early voting runs, if your county offers it for this election. A voter who mails a ballot two weeks before election day has finished listening to you. Many campaigns aim their last mail piece to land before absentee ballots go out, then a second at the start of the final week.
The budget
What a local race costs depends on the size of the district and the competition. Look up past races for your office in the Sunshine search; reports since 2020 show what winners and losers spent and on what. The two budgets below are invented examples with round-number prices to show the shape. Get real quotes from local printers and the post office before you commit.
| Item | $3,000 race (one ward, 5,000 voters) | $15,000 race (citywide or county, 25,000 voters) |
|---|---|---|
| Filing fee or petition costs (lesson 3) | $40 | $100 |
| Yard signs and stakes | $700 (150 signs) | $2,400 (500 signs plus 20 large signs) |
| Walk cards and door hangers | $450 (3,000 pieces) | $1,200 (10,000 pieces) |
| Mail to likely voters | $1,200 (one postcard to about 2,000 households) | $6,500 (three pieces to about 8,000 households) |
| Digital ads and boosted posts | $200 | $1,800 |
| Website, domain, email tool | $100 | $300 |
| Voter list with history | $20 | $20 |
| Events (room, coffee, printing) | $90 | $600 |
| Newspaper or radio ad | $0 | $1,200 |
| Bank fees, online payment fees | $50 | $280 |
| Reserve for the last week | $150 | $600 |
| Total | $3,000 | $15,000 |
Check the arithmetic: 40 + 700 + 450 + 1,200 + 200 + 100 + 20 + 90 + 0 + 50 + 150 = 3,000. And 100 + 2,400 + 1,200 + 6,500 + 1,800 + 300 + 20 + 600 + 1,200 + 280 + 600 = 15,000.
Mail is the biggest line in both budgets because it reaches people who will not open the door, and because a mail piece can be aimed: only households with a likely voter, only the precincts that matter. Signs are the line candidates overspend on. They tell voters your name and that someone supports you, which helps in a low-information race, but a sign does not explain your position on anything. Put the money that would buy the 151st sign into another postcard.
Money in, money out
Write the fundraising plan beside the budget. A $3,000 race might be $1,000 of the candidate's own money and $2,000 from 40 people giving an average of $50. A $15,000 race needs real asks: a list of 150 people, a goal for each, and a calendar. Keep the $1,000 per-donor limit in mind (lesson 5), and remember that the $500 Sunshine trigger counts your own money. Plan your spending so the money is in the bank before the bill arrives. A campaign that orders $6,500 of mail in its last month on the hope of a late fundraiser has a debt problem in December.
Everything in the budget shows up on Sunshine reports: each vendor paid $25 or more, by name, date, amount and purpose (67-6607(1)(b)). A supporter who prints your signs at cost has given you an in-kind contribution equal to the discount. A supporter who designs your mailer for free, if that is their trade, has given you the value of the work.
How to: build the budget
- Look up two or three past races for your office in the Sunshine search. Note total spending for winners and losers and what they bought.
- Start from the contact plan, not from a dollar figure. How many households will get mail, how many times? How many doors will volunteers knock, and how much literature does that take?
- Get two quotes for signs, printing and mail preparation. Ask the post office about rates and preparation for political mail in your area.
- Set aside 5 to 10 percent as a reserve for the final week.
- Write the fundraising plan next to the budget, with dates. Do not order what you have not raised.
- Put a "paid for by" line in every design file now, so no piece goes to the printer without it.
Volunteers and endorsements
Volunteers are the cheapest way to reach the win number, and in a local race they usually come from your own life: neighbors, coworkers, people from your church or your kid's team. Ask early and ask for something specific: "Can you knock doors with me two Saturdays in October?" works better than "Let me know if you want to help." Give each volunteer a short script, a walk list from the voter file and a clear return time. Volunteer time is not a contribution under 67-6602(3), and a volunteer's own incidental costs up to $25 are not either.
Endorsements carry weight in local races, where voters have few other cues. A named former mayor, a respected teacher, a neighborhood association president: their names on a mailer tell voters someone they trust has looked at you. Ask permission in writing for any name you print. Groups may also endorse. Remember that a 501(c)(3) charity may not endorse or oppose a candidate at all (course 46's Nonprofits in Politics), and that a group that plans its spending with you has made an in-kind contribution rather than an independent expenditure (lesson 5 of course 46). City, school and most district races are nonpartisan on the ballot; lesson 4 covers what parties may and may not do in them.
Disclaimers on everything
Idaho Code 67-6614A requires the person who pays for a communication expressly advocating the election or defeat of a candidate to be "clearly indicated" on it, in broadcast, print, outdoor advertising, direct mail and other general public political advertising. The Secretary of State's local candidate guide gives the plain example: "Paid for by" and the candidate's name. That goes on signs, push cards, door hangers, mailers, ads and your website. Course 46's Literature, Signs and Ads covers the details, including sign placement and digital ads.
Myth: you have to reach every voter in the district
You have to reach enough of the voters who will actually vote. In the Cedar Bluff example, 5,200 people are registered but only about 1,600 are expected to cast a ballot, and 834 votes should win. A campaign that spreads its money across all 5,200 spends two-thirds of it on people who will not vote in this election. Voter history from the Secretary of State's $20 report, or the county clerk's list, tells you who has voted in past local elections. Start there, and widen the list only when the core universe has been covered.
How to: build your contact universe from the voter list
- Order the voter registration report with voter history for your county or district, or ask the county clerk for the precinct list under 34-437. Sign the use acknowledgement and keep a copy.
- Filter to the voters in your ward, zone or district. The clerk can tell you which precincts are inside it.
- Mark everyone who voted in at least one of the last two elections like yours. That is the core universe.
- Group them by household and street for walk lists, and by household for mail.
- Keep the list for political contact only. Do not use it to mail fundraising appeals.
- Update it after each weekend with who you reached and how they responded.
If you report on this
The voter list order form is a public record, so you can ask the Secretary of State or the county clerk who ordered lists for a district and when. The precinct canvass from the last election tells you the realistic win number for a race; compare it with what campaigns claim. Sunshine reports show where each campaign spends, and a campaign that has bought mail but reports no mail vendor has a gap to ask about. If a fundraising letter arrives at addresses that look like they came straight from the voter file, ask the campaign where its list came from, since the statute bars that use. And turnout figures for local races are worth reporting before the election, not only after: a candidate's realistic target is a story.
Go further
- VoteIdaho registration totals: monthly totals by county and district since 2008.
- Secretary of State voter report order form: prices, delivery options and the use acknowledgement.
- Sunshine search: what past candidates for your office raised and spent.
- BoiseDev on 2025 Ada County turnout: a good model for reading local turnout by district.
- Course 28, Who Runs Idaho Elections: the county clerk's and Secretary of State's roles.
- Course 70, Email Lists: the Owned Audience: building the supporter list you can ask for money.
- Course 26, Funds and Documents: read the budget of the body you are running for.
Check yourself
1. A ward has 6,000 registered voters. You expect 30 percent turnout and a two-way race, and 5 percent of voters skip the council contest. What is the bare win number?
6,000 x 0.30 = 1,800 ballots. 1,800 x 0.95 = 1,710 votes in the race. Half is 855, so 856 is a bare majority. Most plans add a cushion on top.
2. What may a candidate NOT do with a voter list bought from the Secretary of State under Idaho Code 34-437A?
The list may be used for any political purpose, but the statute bars using it to mail or deliver solicitations for money, services or anything of value, as well as commercial advertising.
3. Under Idaho Code 34-106 as amended in 2024 and 2025, on which dates may most local elections be held?
The current text lists the third Tuesday in May and the November general election date, plus an emergency provision. Irrigation districts have extra February and August dates for certain Title 43 questions.
4. What did Boise's citywide turnout look like in recent odd-year elections, according to news reports?
Reports put Boise at 33.4 percent in 2019, 43.8 percent in 2023 (a mayor's race) and 34.6 percent in 2025. The 56.8 percent figure is Idaho's statewide turnout in the November 2022 general election.
5. A supporter designs your mailer for free. She is a professional designer and normally charges $400 for that work. How does it go on your Sunshine report?
Professional services given free are valued at fair market value and counted against the giver's limit. In-kind items appear as both a contribution and an expenditure under 67-6607(1)(b).
6. The filing window for a political subdivision election under Idaho Code 34-1404 runs from when to when?
34-1404 opens filing at 8:00 a.m. on the twelfth Monday before the election and closes it at 5:00 p.m. on the tenth Friday before. Lesson 3 covers which races use this section.
Terms in this lesson
- Win number
- The number of votes a campaign needs to win, estimated from registered voters, expected turnout, the share of voters who skip the race, and the number of candidates, usually with a cushion added.
- Universe
- The list of voters a campaign plans to contact, such as everyone who voted in at least one of the last two odd-year city elections.
- Canvass of votes
- The official count certified after an election. County canvass reports break results down by precinct, which shows where a candidate ran strong or weak.
- Voter history
- The record of which elections a registered voter cast a ballot in, not how they voted. Sold with the Secretary of State's voter registration report.
- Undervote
- A ballot that skips a particular race. Down-ballot local races often have more of them.
- Burn rate
- How fast a campaign spends money compared with how fast it raises it.
Sources
- Idaho Code 34-437, Lists of electors (county clerk) checked 2026-10
- Idaho Code 34-437A, Statewide list of registered electors checked 2026-10
- Idaho Secretary of State, Voter Registration Report Order Form (rev. Nov. 6, 2023) checked 2026-10
- VoteIdaho, Voter registration totals checked 2026-10
- Idaho Code 34-106, Limitation on number of elections checked 2026-10
- Idaho Code 34-1404, Declaration of candidacy (political subdivisions) checked 2026-10
- BoiseDev, Voter turnout up across Ada County despite multiple districts with unopposed candidates (Nov. 5, 2025) checked 2026-10
- Yahoo News (syndicated), Most voters skip off-year elections. Boise's 2023 turnout was surprising. What happened? checked 2026-10
- KTVB / Idaho Press, Final canvass: voter turnout in Idaho (Nov. 2022) checked 2026-10
- Idaho Code 67-6614A, Publication or distribution of political statements checked 2026-10
- Idaho Code 67-6607, Reports of contributions and expenditures checked 2026-10
- Idaho Secretary of State, Campaign finance guide for local candidates checked 2026-10